Lights On in the Foothills

A note on the numbers: the graphic shows the monthly median sales price, while the commentary below looks at the past month, so the two can differ slightly.

Active listings

27,952up 8.2%

Under contract

6,103down 18.3%

Monthly median sales price

$443,900down 1.4%

Closed sales, past month

5,269down 15.6%

Median days on market

50

Cromford Market Index

68.6a buyer’s market

Closings Down 15.6% Over the Past Month

For Buyers

In times of uncertainty, it’s good advice to focus more on what is known than unknown. Mortgage rate predictions have missed their marks repeatedly over the past 4 years, causing them to be a poor data point on which to base home buying decisions. The only rate that is known is the one quoted today, which is averaging 7.4% as of October 21st. A general rule of thumb to use with fluctuating rates is with each 0.1% fluctuation in the rate, add or subtract 1% on the principal and interest payment. Therefore, a payment quote of $2,500 for a loan around $360,000 at 7.4% will go down by roughly $25 at 7.3%. Buyers who purchase their home today at 7.4% do not need to stress under the uncertainty of where rates are going. If rates go up, they are set. If rates eventually go down to 6.0% again, they don’t miss out. They contact their lender, refinance the loan, and drop their payment.

It’s not all about the mortgage rate, however. When prices decline, buyers either get a little more home for their budget, or they get a lower payment for the same home. For example, if the mortgage rate goes up by 0.5%, the payment goes up 5%. However, if the price comes down 5% for the same home, the payment goes down 5%.

There have been 17,077 single family homes under $400,000 listed for sale in Greater Phoenix so far this year, 14.4% higher than the same time frame in 2023, and active counts have accumulated 25% since the beginning of September. Buyers get a median of 1,548 square feet for a $400,000 budget, which is 100sqft more than 2022, and single family homes make up 65% of all sales in this range.

Here is a breakdown of where prices are dropping and where they are not:

Average price per square foot by price range, October 1-18, 2025 and 2026

For Sellers

Prices are holding up even as demand softens. The median sales price is $443,900, down 1.4% from a year ago. Sellers should still be prepared for a longer wait. The median home that went under contract in that period was on the market for 50 days compared with 51 days a year ago, and 38 days two years ago.

Fewer homes are selling. Closings fell 15.6% to 5,269 over the past month compared with last year. September closings were 4.7% below September 2025, the second month in a row below last year after every month from January through July came in higher. New listings were down too, 9,287 over the past month against 9,618 a year earlier (-3.4%). Supply is building because fewer listings are selling, not because more are coming to market.

The luxury market is the exception. September closings over $1.5 million rose 25% from last year, 264 against 211, and 62 homes sold over $3 million compared with 57 last September. With contracts at their lowest mid-October level since at least 2011 and rates above 7%, closings are likely to stay below last year through the rest of the fall.

Sellers who price to where buyers are writing contracts today will be the ones who close before the holidays.

If you’re just curious, these numbers cover the whole Phoenix metro, and Ahwatukee, the Foothills and the East Valley each move a little differently. Reply with your street and I’ll tell you what I’m seeing there.

Thinking about selling this fall? I wrote about what the October numbers mean for sellers, and why serious holiday buyers matter: Selling Your Ahwatukee Home in the Fall and Through the Holidays.

Source: The Cromford® Report, October 2026. Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report. ©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Figures and commentary as published in The Cromford Report, October 2026.

Sun, Nov 1 · Ahwatukee Foothills · Free

This event has passed.

Chandler Boulevard holiday lights switch-on

The neighborhood holiday light display along Chandler Boulevard comes on for the season. It is funded by the Foothills and Club West HOAs, and donations are open all season.

It is free to drive or walk, and it is the quickest way to feel the season start without leaving the neighborhood.

Donate to the lights display

Verified October 23, 2026, from Ahwatukee Foothills News reporting. The HOAs publish no event page, and no start time has been published.

Sun, Nov 1 · Chandler · 4 PM

This event has passed.

Chandler Mariachi and Folklórico Festival

This is an afternoon of mariachi music and folklórico dance honoring Día de Muertos, with Mariachi Pueblo Viejo, Mariachi Nueva Fusion, Evelyn Ozuna and Ballet Folklorico Quetzalli-AZ. Tickets $49 to $79. Chandler Center for the Arts, 250 N. Arizona Ave.

A beautiful, family-friendly way to spend a Sunday, with a free Día de Muertos celebration earlier that afternoon for all ages.

chandlercenter.org

Verified October 23, 2026, on the Chandler Center for the Arts event page.

Sat, Nov 21 · Ahwatukee · 10 AM to 11 PM · Free

Light Up Ahwatukee Holiday Festival

This is a free, all-day community party with inflatables, vendors, a Santa’s village with complimentary photos, arts and crafts, and a beer garden for adults. Desert Foothills Park, 1010 E. Marketplace Way.

Photo: last year’s festival, from my drone footage.

It is Ahwatukee’s own holiday kickoff, run by a local nonprofit, and it costs nothing to come.

lightupahwatukee.org

Verified October 23, 2026, from Ahwatukee Foothills News reporting and a second listing for the same date. The organizer’s 2026 details page could not be read.

Opens Wed, Nov 25 · Phoenix · 5:30 to 10:30 PM

ZooLights at the Phoenix Zoo

The zoo’s holiday light show, nightly through January 15, 2027. One ticket is good for any single night. General $35, member $30, children 2 and under free. 455 N. Galvin Parkway.

A good one to have in your back pocket when family is visiting over the holidays. One ticket covers any single night, so you can pick the evening that suits you.

phoenixzoo.org

Verified October 23, 2026, on the Phoenix Zoo page, which notes that dates and hours can change.

Fri, Nov 27 · Ahwatukee · 8:30 AM

Tukee Trot 5K

A neighborhood 5K run and walk the morning after Thanksgiving, with a free 1-mile Kids Quail Fun Run at 9:30 AM for ages 11 and under. Pecos Park, 17010 S. 48th St. The 5K is $40 now and $45 after November 1. Proceeds support the Kyrene Foundation and Phoenix Parks special programs.

A low-pressure way to burn off the pie, with the whole community out together.

Register on RunSignUp

Verified October 23, 2026, on the RunSignUp race page. The $40 price was the price on that date.

Opens Fri, Nov 27 · Phoenix · 5 to 9:30 PM

Las Noches de las Luminarias

An evening walk through the Desert Botanical Garden lit by thousands of luminarias, on select nights from November 27 through January 3. Advance tickets are required and popular nights sell out. Adult tickets run about $40 to $45.

A quieter, more atmospheric option than a big light show.

dbg.org

Verified October 23, 2026, on the Desert Botanical Garden event page, which does not print the season year; the dates match a 2026 listing elsewhere. Check the Garden for tickets.

Looking ahead: the Million Lights 5K is Saturday, December 19, starting at Desert Foothills Park, with a kids run at 6:30 PM and the 5K at 7:00 PM. millionlights5k.com

Par Five Sports Grill is now open at Chandler Boulevard and Desert Foothills Parkway, in the same center as Biscuits. It is family-owned, with roots in Sierra Vista, where the same family runs a local favorite called Manda Le Bar and Grill.

The menu pairs sports-bar standards like wings and nachos with Vietnamese dishes such as rice-noodle salad and Saigon lettuce wraps. There is a stage for live bands and DJs on Friday and Saturday nights, plus karaoke nights.

Why it matters: This end of Ahwatukee has not had many places to catch a game, hear live music and stay a while. A family-run spot with a menu you don’t see everywhere is worth a visit, and it is within a few minutes of most of the Foothills.

1241 E. Chandler Blvd., Suite 110, Phoenix 85048 · (480) 248-9628 · Check parfivesportsgrill.com for current hours. Read my full post.

Also around town

Data center construction near 48th Street and Thistle Landing

Photo: Amy Richardson, October 1, 2026. Read my coverage of the Ahwatukee data center.

Neighbors in Ahwatukee have raised concerns about noise and bright lighting at the Menlo Digital data center site under construction there. The City of Phoenix has had inspectors on site in the early mornings. Construction hours moved to 7 AM to 7 PM, Monday through Friday, on October 16 unless the city grants a special permit, and the city says it will not grant one. The city has not found that any violations occurred. If you live nearby, it affects your mornings. If you don’t, it is a good example of what to ask about before you buy near a construction site. Source: Ahwatukee Foothills News.

Downtown Chandler on a normal Saturday

The Downtown Chandler Farmers Market runs Saturdays at Dr. A.J. Chandler Park, 9 AM to 1 PM from October through May, rain or shine. Leashed dogs are welcome. More in my post What Downtown Chandler Gives You on an Ordinary Saturday.

Cooler nights make a fireplace tempting. On days when air quality is forecast to be poor, Maricopa County declares a No Burn Day. On those days you can’t burn wood or other solid fuel in a fireplace, wood stove or chimenea. Gas logs are fine. Cooking fires that start and stop promptly are allowed.

• Check before you light: the Clean Air Mobile App, or call 602-506-6400.
• Why it matters: fines for a residential fireplace violation run from $50 to $250.
• Year-round: burning household or yard waste is never allowed.
• If you’re buying or selling: a wood-burning fireplace can be a selling point, and knowing the rule helps you explain it to buyers or use it yourself.

Source: Maricopa County, Burning Activities