Phoenix Housing Market, October 2026: What the Cromford Numbers Say

I'm Amy Richardson with Savvy Realty Group. Every month I read The Cromford Report, and every month I try to say what it means without the jargon. The short version for October: supply is building because fewer homes are selling, not because more are coming to market.

The video above is the one-minute version. Everything below is the detail. All of the figures are from The Cromford Report, October 2026, for the Phoenix metro.

• Active listings: 27,952, up 8.2% from a year ago
• Under contract: 6,103, down 18.3%
• Monthly median sales price: $443,900, down 1.4%
• Closed sales, past month: 5,269, down 15.6%
• Median days on market: 50
• Cromford Market Index: 68.6, a buyer's market

If you are buying under $400,000, you have more choices than you did in September. Cromford's analysts report that active listings of single family homes under $400,000 have built up about 25% since the start of September, and that 17,077 homes in that range have been listed so far this year.

Prices are not falling everywhere. Cromford's comparison of average price per square foot between October 1 to 18 of last year and this year shows the lower price ranges softer and the luxury end higher:

Source: The Cromford Report, October 2026.

Cromford also puts the average quoted mortgage rate at 7.4% as of October 21, and makes a point I agree with: the only rate that is known is the one quoted today. If you are thinking about buying, my buying page explains how I work with buyers.

Prices are holding up even as demand softens. The median sales price is $443,900, down 1.4% from a year ago. But you should be prepared for a longer wait. Cromford reports the median home that went under contract had been on the market 50 days, compared with 51 days a year ago and 38 days two years ago.

Fewer homes are selling. Closings fell 15.6% to 5,269 over the past month compared with last year, and new listings were down too, 9,287 against 9,618 a year earlier. That is why I say supply is building because fewer homes are selling, not because more are coming to market.

The luxury market is the exception. Cromford reports September closings over $1.5 million up 25% from last year, 264 against 211. It also notes that contracts are at their lowest mid-October level since at least 2011 and that rates above 7% are likely to keep closings below last year through the rest of the fall.

My advice for sellers is the same as in the video: price to where buyers are writing contracts today. I wrote more about timing in selling your Ahwatukee home in the fall, and you can request a home value to see where your own home sits.

These numbers cover the whole Phoenix metro. Ahwatukee, the Foothills and the East Valley each move a little differently, and I am not going to guess at a local number from a metro average. If you want to know what is happening on your street, reply or reach out with it and I will tell you what I am seeing.

Every figure above is from The Cromford Report, October 2026, for the Phoenix metro, used with credit to Cromford. Cromford's commentary is written by its senior housing analyst, and my own comments are marked as mine. I will do this again next month with the new numbers and a new video.