Although 2024 has wound down, the U.S. housing crisis lives on. But even as steep home prices and elevated mortgage rates sideline many would-be homebuyers, some real estate markets around the country continue to attract them.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) this month released a list of 10 local housing markets it expects to be hot spots in 2025, outperforming the rest of the country in sales. The locations have been chosen by NAR based on their current individual strengths across 10 key economic, demographic and housing factors that are considered predictors of future market activity.
"Important factors common among the top-performing markets in 2025 include available inventory at affordable price points, a better chance of unlocking low mortgage rates, higher income growth for young adults and net migration into specific metro areas," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist and senior vice president of research, in the report.
One of those factors is the share of "locked-in" homeowners in a given area — those with low mortgage rates from previous years who are in no rush to sell and take on new loans at much higher rates. Areas with fewer locked-in homeowners were considered by NAR to be hotter than others as they are more likely to see properties listed. More listings means and more opportunities for buyers.
Predictions for 2025
NAR expects mortgage rates to stabilize, if not fall as sharply as some house-hunters were hoping, next year. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced its third straight cut in its benchmark rate, lowering the federal funds rate by another quarter of a percentage point. Although mortgage rates don't always mirror the Fed's rate moves, they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, rising or falling along with the return on government debt.
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Massachusetts-New Hampshire
Buying a home in Boston-Cambridge-Newton area isn't exactly cheap, with home prices averaging $694,494, according to Zillow. That's more than $200,000 north of the national average home price of $430,584.
Still, the metro area has a number of strengths. For one, NAR expects the local housing market, which includes portions of southern New Hampshire, next year to benefit from stabilizing mortgage rates, which would likely mean fewer locked-in homeowners. Mortgage rates in Boston typically skew lower than the national average, according to the real estate group, which noted that Boston also has a good number starter-homes. Typically priced at 85% of the median-priced home, starter homes are critical for first-time buyers.
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, North Carolina-South Carolina
In addition to 10% job growth over the last five years, Charlotte has a significant share of affordable housing, with 43% of homes priced below $324,000 — a huge draw for first-time buyers and young families. The average interest rate in the area is 6.85%, slightly below the national average of 6.89% for a 30-year fixed mortgage.
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, Michigan
Grand Rapids, Michigan, offers an ample stock of affordable homes, with the average home price at $271,960, while mortgage rates hover around 6.9%, slightly above the national average. But because Grand Rapids has a small proportion of mortgage originations with rates below 6%, NAR predicts fewer lock-ins and more listings in 2025.
Greenville-Anderson, South Carolina
With home prices averaging $307,315 and a large influx of new residents, houses in Greenville don't stay listed for long — typically about 17 days. Mortgage rates run just above the national average, at 6.9%, most likely because of recent foreclosures happening in the state, according to MorgageRates.com.
NAR points to the 42% of homes categorized as starter homes in Greenville as another reason why it predicts the local housing market will be a standout for families and young professionals in 2025.
Hartford-East-Hartford-Middletown, Connecticut
When it comes to affordability, Hartford's average home price of $178,696 is hard to beat. In 2023, The city's average mortgage rate of 6.5% was one of the lowest among the top markets. Connecticut's capital city also has the highest proportion of homeowners surpassing the area's average tenure of 17 years, an indication of a potential increase in local inventory, according to NAR.
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Indiana
Indianapolis made NAR's list because of strong job growth and housing affordability. Nearly 42% of the housing stock is priced below $236,000, with the average home value at $223,261. "With fewer 'locked-in' homeowners than the national level, this area is likely to see more available inventory as mortgage rates stabilize around 6% next year," according to NAR.
Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas
Kansas City's generally lower average mortgage rate and smaller share of locked-in homeowners makes it a favorable market for financing and inventory. The average house is priced at $233,826, making homeownership in the area affordable for one in three millennials. Affordability plus competitive financing will make the Kansas City housing market a top performer in 2025, according to NAR.
Knoxville, Tennessee
One of the hottest housing markets in Tennessee, Knoxville is a place where newcomers go to settle down — roughly 50% of movers to the area decide to buy a home, NAR says. The average value of a home in Knoxville is $350,614, making this city located in the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains affordable compared with other major cities.
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona
The average home value in Phoenix is $414,977. The relatively affordable housing stock, plus a comparatively lower cost of living and strong job growth, have made Arizona's capital city a key destination for Californians looking to relocate. "Demographic shifts and economic expansion has established Phoenix as a prosperous and dynamic market," according to NAR.
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas
The average home in San Antonio is priced at $250,834, which makes it one of the few markets to see a decrease in residential real estate costs over the past year. The city, home of The Alamo, also has had one of the strongest records of job growth in the U.S. in recent years, according to the NAR report, and it continues to attract a steady influx of new residents.
Source: CBS News
